Buildings play a crucial role in our clean energy future. We must electrify space and water heating to cut fossil fuel use and harness our increasingly renewable power grid.

But the impact of electrification programs can vary widely depending on their timing and implementation. Areas that rely heavily on gas could see major changes. Switching to electric heating and cooling will significantly increase grid loads and create new peaks, especially during winter mornings. In regions where air conditioning is uncommon, new heat pumps (which both heat and cool) could drive up summer energy demand.

To ensure positive outcomes, utilities and policymakers must accurately predict and prepare for the massive impacts of electrification on consumers and our energy infrastructure. Having a granular understanding of how electrification initiatives will affect specific populations and regions is critical to ensure that they will benefit customers and the grid. 

To address these challenges, researchers from Recurve and the California Energy Commission (CEC) recently unveiled a new, data-driven approach to planning for electrification. Their paper, “Decarbonize This: Measuring the Building Electrification Baseline With a Comprehensive Meter Dataset” was presented at the 2024 ACEEE Summer Study conference. The study demonstrates how smart meter data can improve program design, enhance grid planning, and ensure more equitable outcomes in the transition to an all-electric future.

In recent years, utilities have invested billions of dollars in advanced metering infrastructure ("smart meters") that report energy use at daily, hourly or even smaller time increments. Today, almost 70 percent of utility customers in the United States have smart meters. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) allocates an additional $3 billion to extend this infrastructure to the rest of the country. Figuring out how to fully leverage this investment to provide customer and system benefits is an ongoing challenge for utilities. 

For their study, the Recurve and CEC researchers used Recurve's secure FLEX platform to analyze AMI data for a sample of 3.6 million gas and electricity customers from across PG&E's California service area. This represents one of the largest comprehensive analyses of smart meter data to date.  

The researchers used Recurve’s FLEX platform, powered by the open-source OpenEEmeter software, to isolate and identify each customer's estimated space heating and space cooling loads and which fuel they used for space heating and hot water (gas or electric).

The analysis identified several patterns that could inform electrification policy in California.  Some findings match common expectations, while others may be surprising. Critically, all of the findings are based on hard data from customer energy consumption patterns, providing essential ground truth to better inform how California prepares for an electrified future.

• While gas services vary dramatically by region, when customers have gas service they almost universally use it for space and water heating.
• In contrast to homes with electric heating, households with detected gas heating tend to use a significant amount. This suggests that households that have gas overwhelmingly use it as their primary source of heating.
• A large majority of households use at least some electric heating, but only a small minority use significant amounts. This suggests that most households already use electricity as a supplemental source of heating, on top of primary heating from gas, propane, or wood. Switching to a properly designed heat pump system could eliminate the need for supplemental electric heating, mitigating the overall load impacts of electrification.
• The overwhelming majority of households in California's cooler coastal climate regions do not currently use air conditioning. Replacing gas heating with electric heat pumps in these climates could add significant summer peak load for the utility as these customers gain cooling. 
• In contrast, nearly all customers who live in hotter climate zones have existing air conditioning, are unlikely to add significant new cooling when converting to heat pumps, and may, in fact, reduce their summer load through efficiency.

• A significant minority of customers (more than 10 percent of the total in coastal regions) use both a lot of gas and electricity for heating. In addition to converting to heat pumps, these customers could be good candidates for comprehensive, whole-building retrofits to reduce their heating load overall and improve comfort.

The study also found that some customers use very little gas or electricity for heating, and some use none at all. Those who use no gas or electricity are likely to rely on delivered fuels such as propane or wood for all of their heating. Those who use very little may also be using delivered fuels for primary heating, or they could be limiting their heating use for financial reasons. Identifying these customers is important to ensure that heat pump and other efficiency programs benefit these hard-to-reach populations as well.

Actionable Insights by ZIP Code

The study also took a detailed look at how household energy use differed by geography, down to the ZIP-code level, and showed how dramatic differences in different areas could have profound impacts on electrification planning and strategy. 

For example:

• A relatively large proportion of homes in Rocklin (a suburb of Sacramento) were found to have solar PV (21 percent), and almost all had air conditioning and gas for heating. Heat pump electrification in this area could significantly improve emissions and benefit the grid by eliminating winter gas use and making cooling more efficient. 
• In contrast to this, Berkeley has more multifamily buildings and much less rooftop PV. Only 7 percent of customers here have air conditioning, which means that adding heat pumps could increase summer peak load — an important consideration for grid planning.
• Finally, residents of rural Bakersfield in the San Joaquin Valley have moderate PV use, universal cooling, and no gas service at all. These customers also have little electric heating, which suggests that they mainly use wood or propane for heating. For most of these customers, adding heat pumps would likely lower heating emissions and make summer cooling more efficient. However, an electrification initiative that focused only on customers with high gas heating usage would have missed this opportunity.

The Huge Opportunity in Targeted Electrification 

As we move towards a clean energy future, it's clear that one-size-fits-all approaches to electrification won't suffice. The dramatic variations in energy use patterns across different ZIP codes underscore the need for tailored strategies that consider local contexts, existing infrastructure, and specific community needs.

The research by Recurve and the California Energy Commission demonstrates the immense value of smart meter data analysis in guiding electrification efforts. By providing granular insights into energy use patterns across diverse regions and households, this approach allows for more targeted, effective, and equitable electrification strategies.

A data-driven approach helps identify and address potential challenges before they arise, such as increased summer peak loads in areas currently lacking air conditioning. It also shines a light on often-overlooked populations, like those relying on propane or wood for heating, ensuring that electrification efforts can benefit all communities. 

Recurve's FLEX platform unlocks insights like these by integrating comprehensive datasets with industry-leading analytics and presenting them through a flexible, user-friendly dashboard — helping utilities quickly plan for future impacts, better manage loads, and improve customer outcomes.

As utilities and policymakers continue to invest in and deploy smart meter technology, leveraging this wealth of data will be crucial. It not only optimizes the substantial investments already made in advanced metering infrastructure but also paves the way for a more strategic, efficient, and equitable transition to an all-electric future.

By embracing this data-driven approach, we can ensure that electrification truly delivers on its promise – not just in reducing emissions, but in creating a more resilient, efficient, and fair energy system for all.

Contact us to learn more about how the FLEX platform can help you leverage utility meter-data for more targeted, efficient, and effective electrification programs.